We are having, an interesting discussion on another board that I belong to (the Cessna 150-152 club). The basic thesis of the discussion is that with the increasing cost of energy, we may be coming to the point that the "middle class" is going to be priced out of flying, even the most economical aircraft. Can't get much more economical than a Cessna 150.
I looked at some receipts that I kept yesterday. Four years ago, I paid $.90 a gallon for diesel. Yesterday, I paid $3.89 for a gallon of diesel. Almost 430% inflation. The cost of a gallon of gasoline has increased at about the same rate.
The cost for driving my motorhome, is approaching $.60 per mile for fuel. I have a Ford 460 in my Class A, and it gets about 5.5 miles per gallon.
Oil hit another high on the commodities exchange yesterday and it appears that a gallon of gas will soon approach $4.00 per gallon.
I freely admit that I do not understand this marketplace we have for oil. Why don't the major oil companies go straight to the producers and buy the oil? What is the purpose of having a commodities exchange for oil? I have worked in electrical generation for 28 years. We go straight to the owners of the mines and negotiate a yearly contract for coal - there is no middle man to run the price up.
I have another question. Are we, as Americans, making the kinds and types of choices that will eventually lead to the demise, or severe curtailment of our RV experience?
As was recently pointed out by the US Geological Survey, we have enormous reserves of oil in America. These reserves lie along our coastlines, in Alaska, and most recently, an enormous field was reported in North Dakota, South Dakota and parts of Montana.
These reserves combine to total billions of gallons of crude oil at our disposal. In fact, there really is no shortage of crude oil.
It appears to me though, that "middle class" America is quite happy paying $4.00 per gallon for gas, and may even tolerate as much as $6.50 per gallon.
I don't mean to be political here, but it also appears that no one in our government is the least bit concerned about the energy issue. I say that because I do not see anyone doing anything about it. What I do see is an enormous effort to convince us that we are "bad" for consuming energy, while politicians run around all over the world in private jets. A Gulfstream G-V doesn't really get very good gas mileage.
In fact, another HUGE tax on the American consumer is working it's way through Congress right now. It's called the Carbon Tax. It will literally take trillions of dollars from us and send it to Washington.
Our company projects electricity rates to increase 30% due to this tax, and diesel and gasoline from 12% to 15%.
We choose not to develop our known oil resouces. We choose not to build new refineries. We choose not to build new coal or nuclear power plants, and even if we did, we choose not to build new transmission lines to get the power to the consumer.
One conclusion was put forth on the Cessna 150-152 board; it was fly now and enjoy it, because it soon may be gone. It appears that my plans for retirement and traveling in my RV are in serious jeopardy.
I guess it's my fault - during my working career I was not able to put back couple of million dollars to retire on.
Perhaps the same can be said for those of us that have invested
heavily in the RV lifestyle. Enjoy it now, because it soon may be gone.
Regards
Rodney Wren
Rodney & Kathy
1989 Fleetwood Limited M37J
Ford 460/C6
Gear Vendor Overdrive
Mor/Ryde Suspension
Toad = Toyota 4WD Pickup
We're a lover of the other -----
side of the hill!!
Not too many years ago we sold our two airplanes. Yes, I'm fully aware of how all of us are changing are lifestyles. Yes, the same will happen to our motorhome and our boat, in about 5 years. We sold our big house just prior to the market spiral. Now, we live in a small low-e/low maintenance house which we designed and built. In a few years, it's all we'll have. History repeats itself.
Willie & Betty Sue
Miko & Sparky
2003 41 ft Dutch Star Diesel Pusher/Spartan
Floorplan 4010
Blazer toad & Ranger bassboat
I know that very soon I'm buying a stick house and selling the class A. Has more to do with needing the room for the fiance' than it does cost of gas, but then I don't drive it much, I live in it.
2000 Pace Arrow Vision, 36B, 2 slides, Ford V10 - Live in it full time
1976 Ford F250 Ranger XLT
2003 Indian Chief
Patriot Guard Rider
To steal a punchline from an old joke; "What do you mean WE Kemosabe?
We, the middle class? Probably.
There will still be private airplanes and big motorhomes but it will be along the lines of the European model. The mega rich will have private jets, big yachts and 40K pound conversions but the middle class will be driving small van conversion and pulling 2000# TT with diesel sedans.
Our grandkids won't know what a "Sunday Drive" was nor will they "See the USA in a Chevrolet." Our lifestyle is and will change but this has happened before. It wasn't all that long ago that the "RV lifestyle" involved a covered wagon, the Oregon Trail, and a team of oxen.
Ken & Kris + Heidi the dog
Sequim, Wa.
2003 Dodge 3500 SRW 4x4 diesel
2003 Logan Wrangler XL 2 Horse slant load trailer
campingken wrote: Our grandkids won't know what a "Sunday Drive" was nor will they "See the USA in a Chevrolet." Our lifestyle is and will change but this has happened before. It wasn't all that long ago that the "RV lifestyle" involved a covered wagon, the Oregon Trail, and a team of oxen.
In our modern time, if you tried to cross the country with a oxen team some environmental group would sue you for increasing errosion,
ruining pristine land, destroying the ground water (I'll leave that to the imagination) and air pollution----and that's if PETA didn't get for crulity to the oxen--lol
A recent NYT article compared today's gasoline price to the previous (inflation adjusted) highs during the Carter years.
At that time fuel accounted for 8% of household income. The rise in prices have brought that from 4% two years ago to 6% of late. So we are not suffering as much (yet).
The Carter crisis resulted in a drop of consumption of around 6% IIRC. I'm afraid there will be many boos and hisses if I mention the 55 mph limit was the law (of physics) that did the most to reduce usage.
We have seen a drop of about 2% in consumption. It doesn't seem people are seriously changing their lifestyle yet.
Many commodities are "fungible". That means you buy more beef if pork gets expensive. But there are no real alternatives to petroleum for transportation today. The inelastic demand means prices can move quickly upward since "no transportation" is the alternative. (Except for 55 mph better mpg...)
My theory is that $100/barrel oil is high enough to bring marginal sources back into production. It will take a while, maybe a year or two, but petro prices should level or perhaps drop for a couple of years. Then the depletion of existing fields and growing world demand will again add upward pressure.
We have many tech things that we can and will do to attack this problem. Electric commuter cars are around the corner. That is one of the few things that will completely displace petro use.
There are a zillion long term things to do that involve nukes, power lines, efficiency. Wind and solar are fine ideas but account for 3% and 1% of our electricity today. Until biofuel can be made out of waste I shudder at what gov programs will do...
All of these alternatives will take about two Presidential terms to make a dent.
Dan
02 Freightliner Sprinter 2500 long tall home brew conversion
I think that there is very little doubt that RVing will soon be available only to the very wealthy. It MAY even become beyond their reach, not because of COST but because of the social conscious of the nation. In a time of dwindling resources it's actually pretty irresponsible to squander energy tooling around the country in gas guzzling vehicles just because we can. Until that time, I'll probably continue to do it but I KNOW it is a lot less than the moral thing to do.
Maybe so. I just hope that DW and I can get in our 2012 Alaska trip. Several years ago I budgeted $5.00/per gallon for the trip. I don't know if I want to pay for it if it goes beyond $6.00. I could scrape up the money, just don't know if I would want to.
Jim & Junnie
2005 Sunline Solaris T-2553 Our Web Site
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