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Since last weekend, the “No Diesel Now” signs have once again been hung out in front of gas stations in the Baiyun, Haizhu and Panyu districts of Guangzhou City. Other stations which still have supplies are crowded with all types of vehicles. Some stations say that they can now only sell to companies that have a long-term supply contract with them. The rest of China is wondering whether it’s all going to spread.

Market analysts estimate that without more supportive policies oil shortages will still occur in some areas. If international oil prices hit new highs and speculative demand again explodes, shortages may recur, this time nationwide. To guarantee domestic supply, it is estimated China needs to import at least 4.8 million tons of oil, which is unlikely, and diesel supply will remain tight in the second quarter. The demand-supply gap is about 630,000 to 1,130,000 tons, so China needs to increase its supply through imports or other channels.

In the first quarter, 2008, China’s net oil product imports reached 5.47 million tons, an increase of 31.8% over the same period last year.