Dick A
Spokane
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Jumbo Cranium wrote:There you go again Joe, Buffet is NOT the arbiter of whether we are in a recession or not. 2 quarters of NEGATIVE growth. THAT is a recession. So far we have not seen even one quarter.
I don't know what school you attended to learn the art and science of economics but when the current inflation rate is added to the equation we are very much in a recession. Only those listening to the politicians currently believe the tooth fairy story of no recession.
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jcapps
Not a senior just a
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Joined: 08/18/2004
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Jumbo Cranium wrote:jcapps. Is there a common definition of "recession" or isnt there? Of course there is and it is "2 quarters of negative growth"
Even the media, which seems to be driven to make a recession where there wasn't one can't quite bring themselves to tell the BIG lie, that there is negative growth in this country. Last quarter the economy GREW at 1%. Sluggish? sure, an economy in recession? No.
You can find examples of business closing factories and stores at any time in an economic cycle. During the boom years, didn't K-Mart and Sears have their share of trouble? We just got a new Penneys a new Circuit City, a new Academy and probably a dozen more in the last 6 months.
The only reason there is any growth is due to gas prices. lol.
All the non believers will see what gas prices are going to do to the US. This is already having a devastating effect. Maybe not in your part of the US but much of the rest of it.
Companies do have trouble during boom years. Mostly due to poor management or over expansion. But few national companies bust during a boom.
BTW Circuit City is teetering on the brink of closing. Just because a National chain just opened a store does not mean it is healthy. Generally store openings are planned one to two years in advance. Not 3 months
"The great challenge of adulthood is holding on to your idealism after you lose your innocence."
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Skid Row Joe
On the road in America
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Joined: 04/26/2006
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Jumbo Cranium wrote:We just got a new Penneys a new Circuit City, a new Academy and probably a dozen more in the last 6 months. I believe the only reason these are being opened is because the land and development sales and building plans have been on these firms books for over 18 months. Construction commitments have been made for 3-years or more. Just a hunch.
One of the products that I represent has been enjoying record sales here in Texas in build-out new commercial construction here in Texas for over two years now. My sales commissions prove it. My stuff doesn't go into Mom and Pop projects.
How long are these projects going to continue? Heck, I don't know, but the architectural specifications on commercial building are still rolling out. These are building plans on-the-books in Texas that will continue build-out, short of nuclear war, IMO.
Now I'm going to have some of the sweet seedless watermellon I bought on-sale last night from Albertson's.
I have a sweet tender nature, however I enjoy sharing my thoughts and opinions.
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Dick A
Spokane
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Oh, some say the economy is not in recession due to some statement of definition or terms of qualification. Well, OK, ....but just wait a little and there will be absolutely no question of what hard times are regardless of the name given or technical and verbal qualifications given.
Expect the stock market to take a jump shortly and then take a deep dive to a new inflation adjusted low. I expect to see 8500 sometime during the next three quarters.
When the rest of the weak financials dump the economy will be in shambles. We have yet to see the bottom of the housing loan problem and commercial real estate is about to follow. When the repackaged market (derivatives) explodes and the trillion plus credit card debt market dives there will be a huge impact on all markets and financials.
The rapid run-up of oil has just served to quicken and acerbate the current financial problems. Greed and exuberance by a few were allowed to sustain unchecked and now the greater populaces will have to pay the price.
I hope you all have a nice garden plot out back as we do.
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SRT
Head of the Lakes, MN
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Joined: 02/18/2001
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Dick A wrote:Oh, some say the economy is not in recession due to some statement of definition or terms of qualification. Well, OK, ....but just wait a little and there will be absolutely no question of what hard times are regardless of the name given or technical and verbal qualifications given.
Expect the stock market to take a jump shortly and then take a deep dive to a new inflation adjusted low. I expect to see 8500 sometime during the next three quarters.
When the rest of the weak financials dump the economy will be in shambles. We have yet to see the bottom of the housing loan problem and commercial real estate is about to follow. When the repackaged market (derivatives) explodes and the trillion plus credit card debt market dives there will be a huge impact on all markets and financials.
The rapid run-up of oil has just served to quicken and acerbate the current financial problems. Greed and exuberance by a few were allowed to sustain unchecked and now the greater populaces will have to pay the price.
I hope you all have a nice garden plot out back as we do.
Ours is actually a small plot in front.  The runaway unchecked greed will and is starting to affect those on a fixed income and the lower income strata. The local egg farm just raised their price by $.50 to $3.00 a dozen as the cost of their feed (corn) went up $3.00 a bag.
I certainly hope our retirement $$ are adequately "spread around". We've been working with our financial advisor for the last 6 months, but you can only do so much.
IMHO when the Dow implodes many whose with high credit card debt will be declaring personal bankruptcy. IMHO we're in for hard times. Glad I dissolved my company 10 years ago.
SRT
2000 32' HR Vacationer with Banks
1998 Subaru Outback Ltd. 5 spd
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Skid Row Joe
On the road in America
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Joined: 04/26/2006
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Dick A wrote:Expect the stock market to take a jump shortly and then take a deep dive to a new inflation adjusted low. I expect to see 8500 sometime during the next three quarters. I guess I'd have to ask some here just how "they're cut back," since they're so certain of the recession they have found themselves in? These posts don't make sense to me.
It's enlightening & interesting to continue reading a vast amount of posters always writing about "someone else's, finances" while they continue spending as if nothing has happened to them. My year to date income is up year over year. Low unemployment figures are not adding up to a Dow 8,500 by March 2009.
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Supercharged
Az.
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CC stock now below $3.50, will be near $6 within 60 days.
2005 Chev 5.3 Supercharged 395HP 425 T hp. Two wheels on front, 2 on back. one seat, tint windows. front and rear bumpers, headlights, windows. Door on each side. Heater, floor mats, junk behind seats, some dirt. Pulls so hard.
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Charlie D.
Gonzales, La.
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Joined: 09/12/2006
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Dick A wrote:Jumbo Cranium wrote:There you go again Joe, Buffet is NOT the arbiter of whether we are in a recession or not. 2 quarters of NEGATIVE growth. THAT is a recession. So far we have not seen even one quarter.
I don't know what school you attended to learn the art and science of economics but when the current inflation rate is added to the equation we are very much in a recession. Only those listening to the politicians currently believe the tooth fairy story of no recession.
Perhap's he is quoting Joe.
Joe has consistently used the 2 quarters of negative growth as being required to have a recession. He has also discounted 5.5%. Saying that it is "near full employment", and has repeatedly said until recently that we are not in a recession. I am not sure of his position now as related to a recession. He is a hard read at times.
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Jumbo Cranium
Texas where else
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I'm not quoting anyone. 2 quarters of negative growth IS the definition of a recession. We havent even had 1 yet. When that happens I will say yes, there is a recession. Until then, there is no recession.
Words have meaning people, you can't just make them up as you go along.
And Dick, if you cam show me ANY textbook that uses the rate of growth plus the rate of inflation to define a recession, I would sure like to see it. You are making up definitions again.
Roger
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Skid Row Joe
On the road in America
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I don't think these guys are able to remember any real recessions. Gas goes up $2.00 and it's the end-of-the-world.......all the while all still living like kings from what I'm reading of them here. If it's a recession, it must be for someone other than them.
I decided to enjoy my seedless watermellon, since the 2nd qtr. will also be about a +1% GDP uptick. --According to Bob Brinker today on his national radio show. Is a sluggish 1% enough to employ workers entering the workforce with cushy jobs? No, but there's no recession yet. The seedless watermellon has small black seeds in it.....very disappointed, but it tastes great!
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