Foretravel pretty much makes all their coaches as custom coaches now. I know they sold a couple of them including the show coach at the FMCA rally but you will not hear from them that way. They will make about 50 coaches this year. That is a small amount but htey are making them. In their best year they made 200 but that was when they were simpler and smaller.
John
2001 42' Foretravel U320
2007 Bornfree 24 Painted
2001 Jeep Wrangler
2007 Burgman 650 Executive
Susie and Dolly (Cavalier King Charles Spaniels)
Dolly now in our hearts and thoughts 8-27-05
Doodle a Black and Tan Cavalier
Lolly a Ruby Cavalier
VintageRacer wrote: I don't think the price of oil has much to do with the down-turn in RV industry. If you can afford one (big DP, that is) you can pretty much afford to drive it places. The larger issue is lack of credit, financial institutions tightening loans, real-estate values dropping, mortgages coming due, companies in all industries tightening down...
I give it 18 more months of flat to reverse growth, then it's course will be run and the changes will be made, and things will start to get better again.
Brian
How could the oil price increase not affect the rv industry? Historically it has every time.
When people look at gas/fuel price and mileage it is basic math to see just fuel is close to 60 cents a mile, and it's not like these are bought to run to the closest park you can find. One of the selling points is the ability to make a 3000 mile trip with all the conveniences. 60 cents a mile, 3000 miles, expensive transportation for most people.
A lot of budgets are stretched by other price increases (also because of oil, transportation, raw material, processing cost) There are employment uncertainties, consumer confidence is weak. This probably doesn't seem like a good time to make a very large purchase that is very expensive to maintain and operate to most people.
I think the jury is still out as to which companies will make it long term if this downturn in the economy and up turn in fuel prices persist. I think the good news about Monaco is that they are taking steps to curb cost and shrink the company to adjust. Will this be enough to save them long term I think depends on whether they are heavily in debt and the length of the fuel cost escalation.
I've worked in the Aviation business for 35 plus years and we've tracked aviation fuel cost that whole time and we are telling customers that a 30% reduction in fuel cost is coming but the Hundred Dollar question is when.
Having a Monaco HR and knowing many great folks in Indiana one can't help but really being concerned about the employees. Hopefully some will be oofered jobs in Oregon.
Roger
2007 40PRQ Quad Slide
HR Endeavor
2006 Acura MDX Toad (4 Down)
Central Oklahoma
VintageRacer wrote: I don't think the price of oil has much to do with the down-turn in RV industry. Brian
WRONG! Oil has everything to do with everything. The price of milk jumped the other day - why? It wasn't the milk, it was the plastic bottle. When oil prices settle to around 90-100 bbl, then so too will gasoline prices. Diesel will stay high, because the govt is the biggest user.
Monaco, like so many others built buses like homebuilders built homes on SPEC! Building on spec means you hope someone will like it and buy it. Selling from an actual sales order is different. It requires a downpayment, but the buyer isn't likely to reject it or want his money back.
I don't know about you, but I didn't see myself receiving a 61% cost of living increase - maybe some of you rich folks did.
Monaco can ship them to China or Dubai and get top dollar. Don't think you can ship a home there, but you never know.
Matt J - 1956 416 Unimog, Featherlight trailer - Gone to Bakken, ND.
Bert - '08 Dakota 4.7, Airstream
SunflyerA wrote: We just came back from the convention in Minneapolis.....Looked at a lot of coaches....Left our names with a couple of salesmen.....no call backs from any of them. One salesman for the Mandalay gave us an initial offering that was so off base we weren't even tempted (he would have had to drop it another 50,000 to reach 25% off), I got the impression they were not serious about making a sale. I have asked Demartini to give me a price....maybe he wants to sell a coach.
Unfortunately many 'salespeople' are still looking for the big score (commission) and not seeing the bigger picture, but perhaps management hasn't clued them in yet !
2006 Revolution LE 40E
2004 Jeep Rubicon Toad/Brake Buddy or
20' Toy Trailer/Quads 'n Dirt Bikes
ole trucker wrote: Seems it might be a good time to buy Monaco stock.
Whilst that might sound like a crazy idea, those that purchased National (NRVH) stock at 6c when it first crashed, saw it rise to 49c on speculation and then crash back to 5c. It's hovered backwards and forwards between 3c and 7c for the last few weeks and that's huge movement on what is now a penny stock.
The best time to buy is always in a Bear market, but you are betting on Monaco being able to respond quickly enough to market forces and be able to start building what the public wants and is able to afford.
RV Park Finder
Fulltimers
2002 Beaver Santiam 38DST + Banks + 99 Jeep GC
DH,DW,Jake and Indie
This is a Feb. 6, 2008 note on Monaco, followed by my comments.
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Monaco Coach Swings To 4th Quarter Profit; Shares Rise
By Jerry A. DiColo
Feb. 6, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Monaco Coach Corp. (MNConaco Coach Corp
MNC 2.47, -0.27, -9.8%) said Wednesday it swung to a profit in the fourth quarter, thanks in part to lower expenses, surpassing Wall Street expectations and sending shares up 21%. The Coburg, Ore., maker of high-end motor coaches swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $2.68 million, or 9 cents a share, from a year-earlier loss of $562,000, or 2 cents a share. The gain was due, in part, to increased cost controls, even as the motor-home market continued to decline and sales for the company dropped 2.4% to $292.1 million. "The steps we have taken over the last 18 months to make the company more efficient have significantly increased our profitability," said Chairman and Chief Executive Kay Toolson. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings of 2 cents a share on revenue of $293 million.
Monaco prospects are reasonable under the circumstances. Their financials are as follows:
Financials Gross revenue down about 20% to $250M first quarter 2008. Profit swings to $8.46M loss for quarter.
Balance Sheet shows cash of $8M, short term debt of $61.14M, current liabilities of $50M and long term debt of under $1M.
Analysis:
The DP market is probably down about 50%. If so, it should recover at about an increase of 10% from the 2008 base level each year for the next four years. This would parallel the 1974-78 time period, but the difference is that the number of 65+ persons and their resources are much higher than 1974-78.
I am out on the road this week and in Illinois and Iowa today observed few motorhomes, but most that I saw were 42' to 45' tag axles. The higher end folks can afford fuel, and eventually will return to buying new motorhomes.
If Monaco downsizes DP production properly and continues to produce towables, they should be fine during the downturn. The upside for Monaco (and perhaps Tiffin and Newmar) is that when the market recovers, they will have greater market share. As I tell my staff regularly, good companies who focus will do fine in a downturn. This should apply to these three companies.
Prediction: Motorhomes will survive and there will be at least three major builders long term in the industry.
Interesting analysis on this. I am in IA an IL and IN today as well. I saw a bunch of Winnes on the way to their 50 anniversary in forest city.
You are right, we will have a few survive and they will capture more market share but of a smaller pie.
Crespro wrote: This is a Feb. 6, 2008 note on Monaco, followed by my comments.
==========================================================
Monaco Coach Swings To 4th Quarter Profit; Shares Rise
By Jerry A. DiColo
Feb. 6, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Monaco Coach Corp. (MNConaco Coach Corp
MNC 2.47, -0.27, -9.8%) said Wednesday it swung to a profit in the fourth quarter, thanks in part to lower expenses, surpassing Wall Street expectations and sending shares up 21%. The Coburg, Ore., maker of high-end motor coaches swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $2.68 million, or 9 cents a share, from a year-earlier loss of $562,000, or 2 cents a share. The gain was due, in part, to increased cost controls, even as the motor-home market continued to decline and sales for the company dropped 2.4% to $292.1 million. "The steps we have taken over the last 18 months to make the company more efficient have significantly increased our profitability," said Chairman and Chief Executive Kay Toolson. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings of 2 cents a share on revenue of $293 million.
Monaco prospects are reasonable under the circumstances. Their financials are as follows:
Financials Gross revenue down about 20% to $250M first quarter 2008. Profit swings to $8.46M loss for quarter.
Balance Sheet shows cash of $8M, short term debt of $61.14M, current liabilities of $50M and long term debt of under $1M.
Analysis:
The DP market is probably down about 50%. If so, it should recover at about an increase of 10% from the 2008 base level each year for the next four years. This would parallel the 1974-78 time period, but the difference is that the number of 65+ persons and their resources are much higher than 1974-78.
I am out on the road this week and in Illinois and Iowa today observed few motorhomes, but most that I saw were 42' to 45' tag axles. The higher end folks can afford fuel, and eventually will return to buying new motorhomes.
If Monaco downsizes DP production properly and continues to produce towables, they should be fine during the downturn. The upside for Monaco (and perhaps Tiffin and Newmar) is that when the market recovers, they will have greater market share. As I tell my staff regularly, good companies who focus will do fine in a downturn. This should apply to these three companies.
Prediction: Motorhomes will survive and there will be at least three major builders long term in the industry.
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