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Open Roads Forum  >  RVing in Canada and Alaska  >  Canada

 > Long-range auroral forecast is good for mid-Sept

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profdant139

Southern California

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Posted: 08/20/12 10:18am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

For folks in the Fairbanks area, September is looking like a good month for the aurora. And today's latest long-range posting looks good for Calgary and Edmonton, too:

Forecast charts

As near as I can gather from reading the material on this and other sites, the sun rotates every 28 days. There are magnetically active areas on the sun that sweep past the earth during every solar rotation, kind of like searchlight beacons. The forecasters think that there will be Level 4 activity in mid-Sept., and their forecasts appear to have been pretty good for the last several rotations -- check out the correlation between the black forecast profile and the red and yellow spikes on the bar graph, which represent (I think) actual historical data.

I wish I knew more about this data set -- I am sort of stumbling around in the dark. If anyone has better info, I would be very interested!


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sue.t

Ibex Valley, YUKON

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Posted: 08/20/12 11:09am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

The last two nights there have been good lights for those awake in the middle of the night. That doesn't include me ... I enjoy a good night's sleep!


sue t.
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Orion

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Posted: 08/20/12 01:06pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I have never used those particular charts before, I normally just look at the 24hr & one hour prediction maps. I always flip to the 'North America' map rather than the Alaska one it seems to default to. This way I can tell if it's going to be in my area.
Those charts however do show how the activity has fallen off since Spring/ Early Summer. Let's hope that this is the 'Lull before the Storm'! There are apparently some big sunspots forming on the farside which will soon rotate around to our side.


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we're very skeptical.

profdant139

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Posted: 08/20/12 04:15pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Orion, I am intrigued -- how do they know that there are sunspots forming on the other side? Do we have a satellite over there watching out for sun-storms? It would make sense if we do, since really big storms can be destructive, so an early warning would come in handy!

profdant139

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Posted: 08/20/12 04:21pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Sun of a gun, so to speak -- there really are sunspots coming around the bend:

Sunspots approaching from the other side of the sun

I wish this site would have explained how they know this is happening. Anyway, good call, Orion!

On edit, I did a little google-wandering, and sure enough, there are two satellites that look at the back of the sun to see what is going on:

Stereo Satellites see the far side of the Sun

Very cool.

* This post was edited 08/20/12 04:29pm by profdant139 *

Orion

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Posted: 08/20/12 08:30pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

THIS is a page from a few days ago of the site I normally use & it shows the stuff that is headed our way!

Johnny G1

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Posted: 08/21/12 12:12am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

sue.t wrote:

The last two nights there have been good lights for those awake in the middle of the night. That doesn't include me ... I enjoy a good night's sleep!
You have to stay up a little later to keep the bears from stealing your winter food supply, mainly your berries as they make good vino.Thanks for the pics, he lookd like he need those berries, the fat bugger.


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