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Open Roads Forum  >  Tow Vehicles

 > Is the EV transformation of the market over hyped ?

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ShinerBock

SATX

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Posted: 06/29/19 09:34am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Groover wrote:

My son has a Model 3, a Nissan Leaf and electric yard equipment. He used to fly RC helicopters competitively and we witnessed the transition from liquid fuel to batteries in the area. He does not expect to ever buy another ICE. I have an assortment of battery powered tools, including a string trimmer and a chainsaw but haven't gone in whole hog as he has. He drives the Model 3 on the job covering a 3 state area and is very happy with it. Between the large battery, the Supercharger network and being able to charge at home and some motels he never feels constrained. On the other hand, the Leaf barely gets his wife to work and back every day. Charging it away from home is a nightmare. Still, very low maintenance is a huge plus for the battery powered vehicles. I am not ready yet to go all electric. I have kept my old liquid fuel powered chainsaws and string trimmers for tougher jobs and will consider hybrids for my next vehicles.

The point here is that battery powered devices are gaining traction and growing market share rapidly. Do batteries work in some applications? Absolutely and they are getting better every day. Are we ready for 100% battery power? Not in my book but 10 years from now I expect them to way outsell ICE engines with ICE engines filling some niche markets, marine and aviation. Meanwhile, a lot of work has to done to supply all that electricity, lower the cost and build thousands of charging stations.

So to answer the question, I think that it is happening now and picking up speed rapidly. Just think about the explosion in battery powered hand tools in the past 25 years. Cars are where hand tools were 20 years ago. But, I do expect to see ICE engines hanging around for quite a few more years, at least in some applications. Just like hand tools.



Great post, but I don't agree on the the fact that BEV's will outsell ICE in ten years. Sure, our current energy infrastructure can probably be able to handle 10% or 15% market share (it is currently slightly over 2%) depending on where you live. However, I don't think it can handle much more than that in the next ten years.

It would require a lot of new energy sources, rebuilding old lines to handle added load, and charging stations at just about every parking lot. What makes this an even greater task is the fact that all this has to be done by seperate entities that have different budgets, different interests, and different views on the best solution. Fifty or sixty years maybe, but not ten. I could be wrong, but the odds of getting all this together in ten years to be able to have EVs take over 50% of market share is very low.

pianotuna

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Posted: 06/29/19 09:40am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

2.9% of new vehicle sales. Doubling each year. It's the old story of take 10,000.00 per day for a month, or take a penny that doubles each day.

No doubt ice vehicles will be around, but they may become prohibitively expensive to operate.

This is similar to the argument of motor homes being a cheap way to holiday. A careful analysis of all the costs may show that doing hotels and eating out is lower cost. Or that flying to a destination and renting is lower cost.

thomas201 wrote:

There are about 1 billion cars (not counting trucks) in the world, we made just over 72 million cars in 2016 and there are about 3 million EV's as of 2018. What market penetration? Long way to go.



Regards, Don
My ride is a 28 foot Class C, 256 watts solar, 556 amp hours of AGM in two battery banks 12 volt batteries, 3000 watt Magnum hybrid inverter, Sola Basic Autoformer, Microair Easy Start.

wnjj

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Posted: 06/29/19 10:20am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

pianotuna wrote:

2.9% of new vehicle sales. Doubling each year. It's the old story of take 10,000.00 per day for a month, or take a penny that doubles each day.

No doubt ice vehicles will be around, but they may become prohibitively expensive to operate.

This is similar to the argument of motor homes being a cheap way to holiday. A careful analysis of all the costs may show that doing hotels and eating out is lower cost. Or that flying to a destination and renting is lower cost.

thomas201 wrote:

There are about 1 billion cars (not counting trucks) in the world, we made just over 72 million cars in 2016 and there are about 3 million EV's as of 2018. What market penetration? Long way to go.

Doubling a percent or two is one thing. The initial adopters quickly fill that first couple percent but after that it will climb much slower. Unlike your penny analogy, it’s not a geometric progression.

Lynnmor

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Posted: 06/29/19 11:13am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Electric vehicles have been around for way over 100 years, how's that doubling production every year working out? [emoticon]





freddmc

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Posted: 06/29/19 11:27am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.

Reisender

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Posted: 06/29/19 11:55am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

freddmc wrote:

I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.


Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.

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Posted: 06/29/19 11:57am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Lynnmor wrote:

Electric vehicles have been around for way over 100 years, how's that doubling production every year working out? [emoticon]


What company has had electric vehicles in production for 100 years. Don’t actually know. I thought Nissan was the first modern EV in production. Maybe I’m wrong.

Lessmore

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Posted: 06/29/19 12:13pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

pianotuna wrote:

2.9% of new vehicle sales. Doubling each year. It's the old story of take 10,000.00 per day for a month, or take a penny that doubles each day.

No doubt ice vehicles will be around, but they may become prohibitively expensive to operate.

This is similar to the argument of motor homes being a cheap way to holiday. A careful analysis of all the costs may show that doing hotels and eating out is lower cost. Or that flying to a destination and renting is lower cost.

thomas201 wrote:



Pianatuna,

For a guy who lives in Saskatchewan...how is the EV superchargers infrastructure doing, ie; location, availability in rural and urban Saskatchewan?

What about trips from the Alberta border to the Manitoba border, driving in one day, as we do on a regular basis ? Where do you charge an EV ?

We make a trip from Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba about 3 times a year. We went in January/19...it was 31 below in Sk., 33 below in Mb.. We filled up in Regina (gas) then in Mb. (Brandon)...snow, ice...had the heater/defroster on full blast the whole way. We didn't worry about our 'range' with our IC vehicle...how would that work out with an EV...same time, same trip ? We both know, don't we.

In an EV the battery loses significant power due to extreme cold and the cabin heat comes also from the EV battery. How far are you going to get from Regina in -30 C cold...somewhere 30 miles west of Indian Head ? Where are you going to get a supercharge for the battery in some of these stretches ?

I understand (an engineer buddy told me) the Tesla manual indicates you shouldn't live the car outdoors for more than an hour if the outside temps are colder than-22. How will that work out in the prairies and northern states, like Montana, North Dakota, etc. ?

These are questions..the detail questions that need to have answers and be resolved.

Groover

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Posted: 06/29/19 12:22pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:

I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.


Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.


People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.

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Posted: 06/29/19 12:39pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Groover wrote:

Reisender wrote:

freddmc wrote:

I lived in Regina and i doubt a current ev would be able to go anywhere in the winter as all the juice would be used to run th heater non-stop.


Most of the mainstream ones would be fine for trips up to about 200 km in winter. If you need more range that that stick with an ICE vehicle. Great commuter vehicles in winter though. If all you have to do is something like a 150km commute even in winter EV’s rule over ICE from the convenience point of view. Think you guys get colder winters than us though. Do your research. For us we much prefer our EV’s over gassers in the winter but different people have different needs.


People in Norway seem to like them. Hopefully few Americans have colder winters than Norway.

Norway zero emissions sales

As in virtually all aspects of EV's Tesla seems to have the best tech for cold weather. Don't forget that if you charge at home you can program your car to be warm before you leave and electric cars do still have enough waste heat to keep the cabin warm.


Our EV,s don’t use waste heat so I can’t speak to that but I have heard some do. Don’t know how that works. One of our EV’s has a heat pump which is pretty effective till about minus 5 C. Then the resistance heater kicks in.

I use to program my car for preheat but with my changing schedule it was a pain. Now I just hit preheat on the smart phone app about 5 minutes before I go. Heats up pretty quick. Small cabin. Big heater. Huge improvement over the Grand Cherokee. But our winters are mild and it seldom gets below minus 15 c here. If I was in Lessmores situation I would be driving a Jeep Grand Cherokee. Right tool for the right job.

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