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Talleyho69

Playa la Ropa, Zihuatanejo, Mexico

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Posted: 03/09/20 07:38pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

As far as we are concerned, it's like seasonal flu with a public relations person.

We are calling it the beer flu here.

Use common sense, be careful, take care of yourself.

qtla9111

Monterrey, Mexico

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Posted: 03/12/20 01:36pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

The Secretary of Health in Mexico said today in AMLOs morning blah blah blah, that it is not necessary to follow what the U.S. or any other country does. Mexico is free and sovereign.

He said it is not necessary to check large groups of people and the airports are open to all countries without any special checks with the exception of China.

With the majority of the cases asymptomatic, you can be sure that if we don't take stronger action, we will see the border closed and cases increase rapidly.


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charlestonsouthern

Summerville, SC

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Posted: 03/12/20 10:02pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

qtla9111, could not agree with you more. What is noted in South Korea and China is that the contagion does not seem to slow down until around the 100,000 mark. If those examples are any indication, US is in the very early stage. Only aggressive testing will tell us where we "truly" are now. All US knows how to do now is to slowly close borders.

charlestonsouthern

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Posted: 03/12/20 10:25pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Correction, South Korea started peaking around 8,000 mark. Only China is slowing around 100,000 mark.

joebedford

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Posted: 03/13/20 06:55am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

charlestonsouthern wrote:

All US knows how to do now is to slowly close borders.
Very very late to the 'party' and border closures won't help. Until we start testing we don't know where we are except that it's already here.

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 03/14/20 04:12pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Honesty and Russia / china are oxymorons.

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Dunk hands and do not rinse. Good for 24 hours.

Dunk everything from the market except cardboard for 5 minutes then rinse with fresh water. It will last far longer than if untreated.

MONEY CURRENCY AND COIN IS HAZARDOUS. Sterilize what you can. Bill's are not paper they are linen or plastic. Coins and all. Do not rinse.

Masks protect against hand to mouth or nose touching. Safety eye lenses protect hand to eye infections.

Bird Freak

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Posted: 03/15/20 01:21pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I guess their media isn't all about doom and gloom.


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pianotuna

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Posted: 03/15/20 01:32pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Talleyho69 wrote:

As far as we are concerned, it's like seasonal flu with a public relations person.

We are calling it the beer flu here.

Use common sense, be careful, take care of yourself.


Hi Talleyho69,

I have to disagree.

" This is a letter from Albert Hsu, scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Dear Friends,
So much confusion, misinformation and denial is bouncing around on social media about the coronavirus that I thought I would try to explain, in plain language, why the experts see this as such an emergency.

You will see the claim online that this virus is a lot like the viruses that cause colds, and that if you get it, it will probably just seem like a bad cold and you are very unlikely to die. Depending on who you are, these statements are probably true. But they are incomplete, and the missing information is the key to understanding the problem.

This is a coronavirus that is new to the human population, jumping into people late last year from some kind of animal, probably at a wildlife market in Wuhan, China. It is related to the viruses that cause colds, and acts a lot like them in many ways. It is very easy to transmit through the respiratory droplets that all of us give off. But nobody has ever been exposed to this before, which means nobody has any immunity to it.

The virus is now moving explosively through the human population. While most people will recover, about 20 percent of the people who catch it will wind up with a serious disease. They will get pneumonia that causes shortness of breath, and they may need hospitalization.

Some of those people will get so sick that they cannot be saved and will die of the pneumonia. The overall death rate for people who develop symptoms seems to be 2 or 3 percent. Once we have enough testing to find out how many people caught the virus but did not develop symptoms, that might come down to about 1 percent, optimistically. It could be even lower, but 1 percent is the estimate given to Congress by the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, so we will go with that.
If the number is 1 percent, that is a large number. It is at least 10 times higher than the mortality rate for the seasonal flu, for instance, which in some years kills 60,000 or 70,000 Americans. So just on that math, we could be looking at 600,000 or 700,000 dead in the United States.

But it gets worse.
Older people with existing health problems are much more vulnerable, on average. The mortality rate of coronavirus among people over age 80 may be 15 or 20 percent. It appears to have 7 or 8 percent mortality for people aged 70 to 79.

Here is the terrible part: If you are a healthy younger person, you can catch the virus and, without developing serious symptoms yourself, you can pass it along to older people. In other words, as the virus spreads, it is going to be very easy to go out and catch it, give it to your grandmother and kill her, even though you will not die yourself. You can apparently catch it by touching a door knob or an elevator button, although the likeliest route seems to be droplets spreading through the air directly from one person to another.

Scientists measure the spread of an epidemic by a number called R0, or “R naught.” That number is calculated this way: for every person who develops the illness, how many other people do they give it to before they are cured (or dead) and no longer infectious? The R0 for coronavirus, in the absence of a control strategy, appears to be a number close to 3 – maybe a bit higher or lower, but in that ballpark. This is an extremely frightening number for such a deadly disease.

Suppose you catch the virus. You will give it to 3 other people, and they will each give it to three others, and so forth. Here is how the math works, where you, the “index case,” are the first line:

1
3
9
27
81
243
729
2,187
6,561
19,683
59,046
177,147
531,441
1,594,323
4,782,969
14,348,907

So, in just 15 steps of transmission, the virus has gone from just one index case to 14.3 million other people. Those 15 steps might take only a few weeks. The index person may be young and healthy, but many of those 14 million people will be old and sick, and they will likely die because they got a virus that started in one person's throat.

The United States is not at this point yet, with millions infected, as best we can tell. We don’t really know, because our government has failed us. We are many, many weeks behind other countries in rolling out widespread testing, so we don’t really have a clue how far the thing has spread. We do know that cases are starting to pop up all over the place, with many of the people having no known exposure to travelers from China, so that means this virus has escaped into our communities.

We do not have approved treatments, yet. We do not have a vaccine. The only tool we really have now is to try to slow down the chain of transmission.
This can be done. In other words, R0 is not fixed – it can be lowered by control measures. If we can get the number below 1, the epidemic will die out. This is the point of the quarantines and the contact-tracing that you are hearing so much about in the news. But the virus is exploding so fast that we will not have the labor available to trace contacts for much longer, so we have to shift strategies. This has already begun, but we are not doing it fast enough.

It is now likely that the majority of Americans will get this virus. But slowing it down is still crucial. Why? Because the healthcare system has limited resources. We only have about a million hospital beds in America. We have fewer than 100,000 ventilators. If millions of Americans get sick enough to need treatment, we will have a calamity on our hands. What will happen is a form of battlefield triage, where the doctors focus on trying to treat the young and allow the older people to die.

This is not theoretical. It is already happening in Italy, where the oldest people are being left alone on hospital gurneys to suffocate to death from pneumonia. They basically drown in their own sputum. There is simply not enough medical capacity to take care of them. The United States appears to be about two weeks behind Italy on the epidemic growth curve.

What do we need to do now? We need to cancel all large gatherings – all of them. You have probably seen that the N.B.A. has postponed the rest of its season. Other sporting events, concerts, plays and everything else involving large audiences in a small space – all of it needs to be canceled. Even if these events take place, do not go to them. No lectures, no plays, no movies, no cruises – nothing.

Stay at home as much as possible.Stay out of restaurants. I would cancel any travel that is not absolutely essential. Work from home if you possibly can. You may have to go buy groceries and medicine, of course, but make the trips quick and purposeful. Wash your hands assiduously after you have been in public places, for a full 20 seconds, soaping up thoroughly and being sure to get between the fingers. Rubbing alcohol will kill the virus, and most strong cleaners such as Lysol will do so as well.

And please stop passing around statements on social media claiming that the situation is not serious or is being exaggerated. This is a national crisis, and conveying misinformation to your friends and family may put their lives in danger."


Regards, Don
My ride is a 28 foot Class C, 256 watts solar, 556 amp hours of AGM in two battery banks 12 volt batteries, 3000 watt Magnum hybrid inverter, Sola Basic Autoformer, Microair Easy Start.

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 03/16/20 07:53pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

There are now more than 50 tested and it's cases in tijuana alone. Keeping track of sick is exponential therefore useless in Mexico.

The Secreteria de Salud declared in three weeks the number of sick will equal California. Schools are closed. Am I to believe cabovWabo and gringo discos are deserted in Cancun and Puerto Vallarta? They are packed at night headlights to tea kettle. I wouldn't visit a gringo hot spot down here for anything. My kids are avoiding Pacific Coast tourist hot spots. Tourists lose half of their IQ quotient when they party. The same goes for many bars in the USA. Giant petri dishes. What a shame. When the disease hits central and southern Mexico the fatalities may reach a hundred thousand among the indigenous tribes with no access to health care. China staffs rural areas with Peoples doctors. Italian Health care is no joke.



MODERATOR'S EDIT: Per the site Admin's request, I am closing all COVID-19 threads and directing future comments to one thread in Around the Campfire.

2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

* This post was edited 03/23/20 01:20pm by an administrator/moderator *

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