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Open Roads Forum  >  Around the Campfire  >  General Topics

 > 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 04/21/20 11:39am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

ExxWhy wrote:

BCSnob wrote:

This article analyzed the economic impact of Sweden’s approach to the Covid-19 pandemic.

More Warning Signs in Sweden
Quote:

.


That was 9 days ago. This is from yesterday. Both are honestly opinion and it will be a while before the final results are in.

Sweden says strategy working
no info in this link on how the Swedes approach has limited the economic impact; the economy being your argument against the stay at home orders (more important than protecting the vulnerable). Even the architect of the Swedes policy has admitted they failed to protect the elderly.
Sweden could have 'herd immunity' by nex........ low despite relaxed lockdown measures

Quote:

Asked about the death rate, Dr Tegnell said: 'It is not a failure for the overall strategy, but it is a failure to protect our elderly who live in care homes.'


If it requires 50% of the population to be exposed to get to “herd immunity” and there are only 13,823 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in a population of ca 10million; how could herd immunity be reached in May? Even using the 50x estimate for underreported infections from the serology study, Sweden in only at 6.5% of the population exposed.

* This post was edited 04/21/20 12:01pm by BCSnob *

pianotuna

Regina, SK, Canada

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Posted: 04/21/20 04:25pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

A plain english article about how covid 19 kills.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opini........Qq5GxZ6F1In9235sEnv7W_rShWXuRPNK5oRaOVRc


Regards, Don
My ride is a 28 foot Class C, 256 watts solar, soon to have SiO2 batteries, 3000 watt Magnum hybrid inverter, Sola Basic Autoformer, Microair Easy Start.

pasusan

Northernmost PA

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Posted: 04/22/20 05:19am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Went shopping for the first time yesterday - since March 19. We've been using the curbside pickup - and since that costs 15% more - wanted to see inside our local store at 6 am.

The toilet paper aisle is still empty - as well as the isopropyl alcohol and vitamin shelves. There are limits on peanut butter and many other items. Lots of milk and eggs though!

We also went to Lowes to get some paint thinner and boiled linseed oil. (Yup - we are getting into household projects.)

Both stores everyone is wearing masks - and there are plastic barriers between the checkout people and the customers.

When we watch a movie we are freaked when people get too close!

Man-o-man the world has changed.


"I'm out here to enjoy nature -- don't talk to me about the environment!" ~Denny Crane

Susan & Ben
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84 Bronco & 90 Award Classic 23 joined with a Hensley Cub for longer trips
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neal10a

Madison CT

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Posted: 04/22/20 12:09pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Wellp, it seems to me we are using statistics to justify our approach to fighting this problem. I always get nervous when folks rely on stats which can be used to prove almost anything. The problem is how accurate are they and do we have enough sample to rely on. As it is now we are runing up a huge national debt and threatening a collapse of our economic system based on inadequate statistics IMHO. I have experienced polio, measles, chicken pox, mumps, asian flu and other epidmics, but I have never witnessed an econmic shut-down like this. So the question is what is worse this virus or economic collapse.

NJRVer

NJ

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Posted: 04/22/20 01:24pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

neal10a wrote:

Wellp, it seems to me we are using statistics to justify our approach to fighting this problem. I always get nervous when folks rely on stats which can be used to prove almost anything. The problem is how accurate are they and do we have enough sample to rely on. As it is now we are runing up a huge national debt and threatening a collapse of our economic system based on inadequate statistics IMHO. I have experienced polio, measles, chicken pox, mumps, asian flu and other epidmics, but I have never witnessed an econmic shut-down like this. So the question is what is worse this virus or economic collapse.



Depends if you live through it or not.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 04/22/20 01:25pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Stop covid or save the economy? We can do both.

Quote:

Our choice is not whether we intervene or whether we go back to the normal economy,” says Emil Verner, an economist at MIT’s Sloan School who has recently looked at the flu pandemic of 1918 for insights into today’s outbreak. “Our choice is whether we intervene—and the economy will be really bad now and will be better in the future—versus doing nothing and the pandemic goes out of control and really destroys the economy.”

Overall, Verner and his coauthors found that the 1918 pandemic reduced national manufacturing output in the US by 18%; but cities that implemented restrictions earlier and for longer had much better economic outcomes in the year after the outbreak.

Verner points to the fates of two cities in particular: Cleveland and Philadelphia. Cleveland acted aggressively, closing schools and banning gatherings early in the outbreak and keeping the restrictions in place for far longer. Philadelphia was slower to react and maintained restrictions for about half as long. Not only did far fewer people die in Cleveland (600 per 100,000, compared with 900 per 100,000 in Philadelphia), but its economy fared better and was much stronger in the year after the outbreak. By 1919 job growth was 5% there, while in Philadelphia it was around 2%.


Quote:

These days Paul Romer sounds exasperated. “We’re caught up in the trauma: kill the economy or kill more people,” he says. There is so much “learned helplessness, so much hand-wringing.” The New York University economist and Nobel laureate believes he has a relatively simple strategy that will “both contain the virus and let the economy revive.”

The key, says Romer, is repeatedly testing everyone without symptoms to identify who is infected. (People with symptoms should just be assumed to have covid-19 and treated accordingly.) All those who test positive should isolate themselves; those who test negative can return to work, traveling, and socializing, but they should be tested every two weeks or so. If you’re negative, you might have a card saying so that allows you to get on an airplane or freely enter a restaurant.

Testing could be voluntary. Romer acknowledges some might resist it or resist isolating themselves if positive, but “most people want to do the right thing,” he says, and that should be enough to snuff out the spread of the virus.

Romer points to new, faster diagnostic tests, including ones from Silicon Valley’s Cepheid and from the drug giant Roche. Each of Roche’s best machines can handle 4,200 tests a day; build five thousand of those machines, and you can test 20 million people a day. “It’s well within our capacity,” he says. “We just need to bend some metal and make some machines.” If you can identify and isolate those infected with the virus, you can let the rest of the population go back to business.


Untapped testing capability according to the task force.
DPA to fulfill the needed testing supplies.

* This post was edited 04/22/20 01:35pm by BCSnob *

philh

Belleville MI

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Posted: 04/23/20 06:38pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

neal10a wrote:

Wellp, it seems to me we are using statistics to justify our approach to fighting this problem. I always get nervous when folks rely on stats which can be used to prove almost anything.

Available data is bad.

Stanford study implying much higher exposure rate, was bad from top to bottom. Useless study that was {hidden} self promoted by the study's authors. Study has since been withdrawn.

VA HCQ study, was also junk science. Study wasn't an actual study, but poorly gathered data.
Debunking VA Study

Yes, it's a deadly and highly contagious virus. There's some discussion that the current treatment of ventilators when the situation gets serious may actually be causing deaths. Personally, I'm totally confused as to why some people don't even know they have it and others are dead in a few short days.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 04/23/20 07:09pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I’d prefer to get my reviews/analyses of scientific studies from someone trained in the field, experienced with the tests being used (ELISA vs rt-PCR), etc. than from an MBA.

I don’t have access right now to the preprints for the Stanford (Santa Clara) and USC (LA County) serological studies, but this summary of all available serological studies reported both CA studies yielded similar percentages of the population were infected.

Antibody surveys suggesting vast underco........coronavirus infections may be unreliable

* This post was last edited 04/23/20 07:42pm by BCSnob *   View edit history

justme

USA

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Posted: 04/24/20 10:39am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

This makes me wonder what is going on with this lockdown. Why did we do it?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison

pianotuna

Regina, SK, Canada

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Posted: 04/24/20 11:44am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

justme wrote:

This makes me wonder what is going on with this lockdown. Why did we do it?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#comparison


Because for the other viruses, there is some herd immunity. With covid 19 there is, at the moment, in the most infected country in the world only about 96 thousand folks who recovered and so may have immunity. That puts herd immunity at 0.00029%. We don't even know if they are immune.

Unfortunately, the latest drug trials show that one of the other "faint hope" drugs, Remdesivir, does nothing.

I can tell you that isolation appears to be working in Saskatchewan. There are 57 active cases, with 6 in hospital including only one patient in ICU. Granted we had on 331 cases in the first place. There are about 1.2 million souls here.

Our Premier is doing a five stage opening starting May 4th. (today is April 24). Stage 2 is to be May 19. The other stages are 'wait and see'. Some folks think that May 4th may be too soon. I hope they are wrong.

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