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Open Roads Forum  >  Around the Campfire  >  General Topics

 > 2019–20 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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Posted: 04/24/20 11:51am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Justme, in addition to what Pianotuna has posted, the link you provided is very outdated: "Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT" and has very little relevance to what has happened in the U.S. in the 7 weeks since then.

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Posted: 04/24/20 12:41pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Quoted from post made by Mr ed.


"An interesting insight into the medical reality of covid-19:

Why COVID-19 is different from the Flu and medical professionals are making such a big fuss about it...
From an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University
“Not really feeling sick and do not want to be..but if you are feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this
Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not needed right now."

BCSnob

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Posted: 04/24/20 01:01pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 mutation hot spots i........vel RNA-dependent-RNA polymerase variant
Published: 22 April 2020

Quote:

Results

We characterized 8 novel recurrent mutations of SARS-CoV-2, located at positions 1397, 2891, 14408, 17746, 17857, 18060, 23403 and 28881. Mutations in 2891, 3036, 14408, 23403 and 28881 positions are predominantly observed in Europe, whereas those located at positions 17746, 17857 and 18060 are exclusively present in North America. We noticed for the first time a silent mutation in RdRp gene in England (UK) on February 9th, 2020 while a different mutation in RdRp changing its amino acid composition emerged on February 20th, 2020 in Italy (Lombardy). Viruses with RdRp mutation have a median of 3 point mutations (range: 2–5), otherwise they have a median of 1 mutation (range: 0–3) (p value < 0.001).

Conclusions

These findings suggest that the virus is evolving and European, North American and Asian strains might coexist, each of them characterized by a different mutation pattern. The contribution of the mutated RdRp to this phenomenon needs to be investigated. To date, several drugs targeting RdRp enzymes are being employed for SARS-CoV-2 infection treatment. Some of them have a predicted binding moiety in a SARS-CoV-2 RdRp hydrophobic cleft, which is adjacent to the 14408 mutation we identified. Consequently, it is important to study and characterize SARS-CoV-2 RdRp mutation in order to assess possible drug-resistance viral phenotypes. It is also important to recognize whether the presence of some mutations might correlate with different SARS-CoV-2 mortality rates.


Quote:

Some polymerase inhibitors are currently being tested in clinical studies to target SARS-CoV-2 RdRp, including Favipiravir, Galidesivir, Remdesivir, Ribavirin, Penciclovir, Galidesivir and Ponatinib. Additionally, other drugs such as Simeprevir (FDA approved HCV protease inhibitor), as well as Filibuvir and Tegobuvir (both RdRp inhibitors), are predicted to bind RdRp by molecular docking studies. In particular, a putative docking site was identified in a hydrophobic cleft very close to the mutated site 323 (P to L), corresponding to mutation 14408 identified in our study. Naturally occurring mutations in RdRp can potentially lead to drug-resistance phenomena, as already observed previously. Alternatively, it might induce a significant decrease in drug-RdRp complex binding affinity. This could lead to different effectiveness of antiviral treatments where mutation 14408 is present. For this reason, due to the high frequency of RdRp mutation in the infected population, it is important to characterize the impact of 14408 mutation on the activity of RdRp and its susceptibility to antiviral drugs.


* This post was edited 04/24/20 01:19pm by BCSnob *

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Posted: 04/25/20 11:39am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Please keep in mind only legitimate professional medical personnel, publications, research findings, and articles should be cited. This does NOT include personal blogs, whimsical musings by individuals, articles taken from political publications, or politically supported publications. This pandemic is too serious to be trivialized.

* This post was edited 04/26/20 07:28am by Moderator *

Deb and Ed M

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Posted: 04/26/20 07:57am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

There's a new "thought" about Covid-19: that it's a blood-seeking virus and causes clots, even in folks in their 40s and 50s. Just one more reason to avoid getting infected.

Blood clots

justme

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Posted: 04/26/20 07:58am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Can someone explain why some countries have a much lower death rate (deaths per million) than others while ignoring data from the Communist countries? For example why is Singapore so low. Then explain why are states on the east coast so much higher. I am not sure of the reason, but something is not right. This is a link to the official scoreboard. I would think there would be more uniformity between countries with modern health care.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

wilber1

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Posted: 04/26/20 08:13am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

justme wrote:

Can someone explain why some countries have a much lower death rate (deaths per million) than others while ignoring data from the Communist countries? For example why is Singapore so low. Then explain why are states on the east coast so much higher. I am not sure of the reason, but something is not right. This is a link to the official scoreboard. I would think there would be more uniformity between countries with modern health care.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


For one thing, places like Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong etc are small, two of them are completely islands and unlike states, all of them have control over their own borders. New Zealand also has a very low rate. It is also a small island country that came down on the virus early and hard.


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neal10a

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Posted: 04/26/20 08:28am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

wilber1 wrote:

justme wrote:

Can someone explain why some countries have a much lower death rate (deaths per million) than others while ignoring data from the Communist countries? For example why is Singapore so low. Then explain why are states on the east coast so much higher. I am not sure of the reason, but something is not right. This is a link to the official scoreboard. I would think there would be more uniformity between countries with modern health care.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


For one thing, places like Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong etc are small, two of them are completely islands and unlike states, all of them have control over their own borders. New Zealand also has a very low rate. It is also a small island country that came down on the virus early and hard.
The data, deaths/million compensates for the proportional difference between countries and control of borders or isolation is not relevant because the virus is prevalent and spreads person to person at an exponential rate. In short IMHO your opinion is conjecture..

BCSnob

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Posted: 04/26/20 08:30am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

There are underlying health conditions that impact the severity of the disease Covid-19 such as diabetes; the rates of these underlying conditions within a population vary from nation to nation.

CDC: covid underlying conditions

Previously of diabetes by nation

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Posted: 04/26/20 08:47am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BCSnob wrote:

There are underlying health conditions that impact the severity of the disease Covid-19 such as diabetes; the rates of these underlying conditions within a population vary from nation to nation.

CDC: covid underlying conditions

Previously of diabetes by nation
However, if you calculate those difference into the differences between the US and other countries as well as the states within the US it does not adequately explain the differences of the death rate. I am not sure what is the reason for the differences, but my experience in quality control using stats, I would first determine if the data is corrupted. I would start with the US data first and then work out from there..

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