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Open Roads Forum  >  Around the Campfire  >  General Topics

 > 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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Posted: 08/10/21 07:28am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Caution.... in keeping with the intent of this thread please do not turn this topic political and avoid assumptions. Continue the good job you have been doing, for the most part, in citing legitimate sources for information you are posting. Thanks.

BCSnob

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Posted: 08/10/21 07:56am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

The emergence of highly fit SARS-CoV-2 variants accelerated by recombination

Quote:

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has entered an alarming new phase with the emergence of the variants of concern (VOC), P.1, B.1.351, and B.1.1.7, in late 2020, and B.1.427, B.1.429, and B.1.617, in 2021. Substitutions in the spike glycoprotein (S), such as Asn501Tyr and Glu484Lys, are likely key in several VOC. However, Asn501Tyr had been circulating for months in earlier strains and Glu484Lys is not found in B.1.1.7, indicating that they do not fully explain those fast-spreading variants. Here we use a computational systems biology approach to process more than 900,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and map spatiotemporal relationships, revealing other critical attributes of these variants. Comparisons to earlier dominant mutations and protein structural analyses indicate that the increased transmission is promoted by the combination of functionally complementary mutations in S and in other regions of the SARS-CoV-2 proteome. We report that the VOC have in common mutations in non-S proteins involved in immune-antagonism and replication performance, such as the nonstructural proteins 6 and 13, suggesting a convergent evolution of the virus. Critically, we propose that recombination events among divergent coinfecting haplotypes greatly accelerates the emergence of VOC by bringing together cooperative mutations and explaining the remarkably high mutation load of B.1.1.7. Therefore, extensive community distribution of SARS-CoV-2 increases the probability of future recombination events, further accelerating the evolution of the virus. This study reinforces the need for a global response to stop COVID-19 and future pandemics.


The phrase underlined above means two different variants were present at the same time in an infected person, these variants genetically interacted creating a new more fit viral variant (antigenic shift).

Deb and Ed M

SW MI & Space Coast, FL USA

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Posted: 08/10/21 08:42am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I think these mass events like Lollapalooza and Sturgis are hard to track because people come from all over the nation; get infected; but are generally back home by the time they feel sick enough to seek out testing? The State of Michigan had a MASSIVE peak of Covid in mid-April, which corresponds with all the families/kids heading to "Virusland" (Florida) beginning in late March; and picking up a load of Alpha Covid and bringing it back home. No other state seemed to have that particular spike - except Florida. (My info came from using the covidactnow.org data)

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/10/21 09:04am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Also from covidactnow

The states of FL and LA have exceeded the peak new daily cases/100,000 set by NYC early in the pandemic.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/10/21 09:25am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Community-level evidence for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine protection of unvaccinated individuals
Nature Medicine June 10, 2021

Quote:

.....we find that the rates of vaccination in each community are associated with a substantial later decline in infections among a cohort of individuals aged under 16 years, who are unvaccinated. On average, for each 20 percentage points of individuals who are vaccinated in a given population, the positive test fraction for the unvaccinated population decreased approximately twofold.

Increasing the vaccination rate from 40% to 60% significantly reduces (2x) the number of unvaccinated (cannot be vaccinated) from getting infected.

Go read up on the Montreal 1885 smallpox epidemic.

* This post was edited 08/10/21 10:20am by BCSnob *

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/10/21 01:03pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Immune Correlates Analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial
Preprint
Quote:

Abstract

Background: In the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection. Methods: Through case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors. Results: Day 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.41 (0.26, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.60; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (-51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%). Conclusions: Binding and neutralizing antibodies correlated with COVID-19 risk and vaccine efficacy and likely have utility in predicting mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against COVID-19. Trial registration number: COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427


Two groups of patients were given either the Moderna vaccine or a placebo. The antibody titers (measure the amount of antibodies) against the spike, RBD, and nucleocapsid portions of the wuhan variant were measured at various time points. Neutralization assays (measure the ability of the serum to prevent a pseudo virus from binding to the ace2 receptor) were also run on these patients. Patients were monitored for covid infections. The antibody titers and neutralization results were negatively correlated to the risk of getting covid-19.

These tests were run using one of my employer’s products.

From Reuter’s news
Antibody levels predictive of Moderna's vaccine efficacy -study

* This post was edited 08/11/21 08:12am by BCSnob *

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 08/10/21 02:35pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Does the presence of mRNA antibodies have an effect on hematopoietic stem cells?

BCSnob

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Posted: 08/10/21 03:34pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Do you mean the anti SARS-CoV-2 antibodies induced because of a vaccine or the virus or do you mean antibodies against mRNA in the vaccine (not aware of studies measuring anti mRNA antibodies)?

MEXICOWANDERER

las peñas, michoacan, mexico

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Posted: 08/10/21 05:41pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Sorry for inclarity. SARS CoV-2 antibodies. Influence on WBC production. I was waiting for microwave oatmeal and coffee had a secondary ordinal. According to non-peer reviewed Indonesian studies killed virus serums had a definite impact and I am curious about mRNA influence if any on white blood cell response timing and production.

With mRNA booster attempts by unauthorized inoculation is the effort solely directed at extending half-life efficacy of an already incredibly effective result? Why are people trying to increase efficacy of a 94/96 prime/secondary serum? A new mRNA composition would be needed not an attempt to boost existing viral spike inhibitors. The internet is a pathetic barren source of reliable research data. If it wasn't for a 1,400 mile travel penalty I would be tempted to visit Palo Alto California. Thank you.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 08/10/21 06:30pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I don’t have info right now (“give you a fish”) what I can do is “teach you to fish”.

I will use google scholar to look for the information you seek.

Google Scholar

What I can say is most of the articles on this topic I’ve seen on BioRxiv (listing for preprints) have been related to how the treatments of chronic diseases impact the efficacy of vaccines. I don’t recall seeing articles on the impacts of vaccines on the treatments of chronic diseases (doesn’t mean there aren’t any; I just don’t recall seeing them).

* This post was edited 08/10/21 06:42pm by BCSnob *

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