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Open Roads Forum  >  Around the Campfire  >  General Topics

 > 2019–2022 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC POSTINGS

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dturm

Lake County, IN

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Posted: 11/16/21 08:18am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BCSnob wrote:

Higher Vaccination Rate Predicts Reduction in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission across the United States
MedRxiv preprint 14 Nov 2021

Quote:

this article analyzes COVID-19 incidence in the United States as a function of each state's vaccination rate. Results show that states with higher percentages of fully vaccinated individuals report fewer new cases among the remaining unvaccinated population.

Being vaccinated helps protect those who cannot be vaccinated.



DUH!! It's too bad that "common sense" epidemiological theory has to be proven via studies and still will be ignored by many.


Doug & Sandy
Kaylee (15 year old Terrier of some sort), Sasha 5 yr old Golden
Kaiya at the Rainbow Bridge
2008 Southwind
2009 Honda CRV


Check out blog.rv.net


BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 11/16/21 10:02am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Duh, was my thought when I read the paper. But I felt posting it here with the concepts presented along with data to support might be helpful in conveying the two fold benefits of vaccination: protection of oneself and protection of others in the community.

dturm

Lake County, IN

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Posted: 11/16/21 03:32pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Totally agree with the intent.

I got an email from AAHA and article from the British Veterinary Journal
Possible link between SARS-CoV-2 and myocarditis in pets

Another reason to vaccinate, Protect your pets. Pets are not currently eligible for vaccination (animal version of the vaccine not the people version of vaccine).

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 11/17/21 01:36pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Here is another study evaluating the impact of vaccination rates on case and mortality rates.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines on Covid-19 Incidence and Mortality in the United States
MedRxiv preprint 17 Nov 2021

Quote:

Negative binomial models were used to estimate associations between U.S. county-level vaccination rates and county-wide COVID-19 incidence and mortality between April 23rd and September 30th, 2021. A two-week lag and a four-week lag were introduced to assess vaccination rate impact on incidence and mortality, respectively.

This time frame covers when Delta became the dominate variant.

Quote:

Among 3,070 counties, each percentage increase in population vaccination rates reduced county-wide COVID-19 incidence by 0.9% (relative risk (RR) 0.9910 (95% CI: 0.9869, 0.9952)) and mortality by 1.9% (RR 0.9807 (95% CI: 0.9745, 0.9823)). Among counties with vaccination coverage >40%, each percentage increase in vaccination rates reduced COVID-19 disease by 1.5%, RR 0.9850 (95% CI: 0.9793, 0.9952) and mortality by 2.7% (RR 0.9727 (95% CI: 0.9632, 0.9823)). These associations were not observed among counties with <40% vaccination rates. Increasing vaccination rates from 40% to 80% would have reduced COVID-19 cases by 45.4% (RR 0.5458 (95% CI: 0.4335, 0.6873)) and deaths by 67.0% (RR 0.3305 (95% CI: 0.2230, 0.4898)).

A decreasing pool of those who are susceptible to becoming infected leads to decreasing numbers of infected people who can go on to infect others (exponential growth in infections).

Quote:

An estimated 5,989,952 COVID-19 cases could have been prevented and 127,596 lives saved had US population vaccination rates increased from 40% to 80%.


BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 11/18/21 07:33am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Some good news, especially for me.

Susceptibility of sheep to experimental co-infection with the ancestral lineage of SARS-CoV-2 and its alpha variant
BioRxiv preprint 17 Nov 2021
Quote:

we performed in vitro and in vivo studies which consisted of infection of ruminant-derived cell cultures and experimental challenge of sheep to investigate their susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2.

Quote:

experimental challenge of sheep demonstrated limited infection with viral RNA shed in nasal and oral swabs primarily at 1-day post challenge (DPC), and also detected in the respiratory tract and lymphoid tissues at 4 and 8 DPC. Sero-reactivity was also observed in some of the principal infected sheep but not the contact sentinels, indicating that transmission to co-mingled naive sheep was not highly efficient

Sheep did become infected after a direct challenge of virus (Wuhan or Wuhan plus Alpha variants); however, the sheep not challenged with virus but house with the challenged sheep did not become infected. These data suggest sheep are unlikely to become a reservoir of SARS-CoV-2.

An interesting (at least to me) side note is this study was performed in the BSL-3+ ag facility at the Biosecurity Research Institute of KSU
Quote:

The BRI has five livestock containment suites featuring gastight doors and individual shower change areas plus additional biocontainment enhancements. The biocontainment capabilities meet recommended BSL-3Ag features of Biosafety in Microbiological and Biomedical Laboratories (BMBL) and function as primary barriers for containment of infectious materials. Together with experimental protocols, these facilities ensure safe research of infectious diseases in large animals. The BSL-3Ag space has penning and gating appropriate for bovine, swine, small ruminants and avians with Animal Care and Use program accreditation through AAALAC. We are proud to be one of a very few research institutions in the United States to offer BSL-3Ag research in large animals.

All BSL-3Ag areas include:
Poured concrete construction
Pressure decay-tested space
Individual security PIN code access
Security cameras
Entry/exit (clean/dirty) corridor system
Gastight doors as biobarriers
Individual shower out/change areas at each animal room
Double HEPA filtration of exhaust air and HEPA filtration of supply air
Direct access to pathogen destruction and waste management via alkaline hydrolysis technology
Liquid effluent treatment system


Some of the Covid-19 research is difficult to perform

* This post was last edited 11/18/21 08:13am by BCSnob *   View edit history

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 11/22/21 08:44am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

This study compared the titer levels of 21 convalescent serum samples to 21 plasma samples from mRNA vaccinees. The key difference in this study compared to others is in this study the affinity of the RBD antibodies produced from natural infection and vaccination were compared. The affinity is how strong does an antibody bind to the RBD; or put another way, how well does the antibody compete for the RBD as compared to the RBD binding to ACE2. The higher the affinity the lower the titer level needs to be to ensure the RBD does not bind to ACE2.

Protective characteristics of COVID-19 convalescent and post-vaccination IgG antibodies
MedRxiv preprint 19Nov2021

As with other studies, vaccination produced a more consistent range in antibody titers against the spike (these are antibodies for any part of the spike).

Quote:

Anti-SP IgG antibody levels for the convalescent plasma population (n = 21) ranged from 33.1 µg/ml to 1.6 mg/ml, while the corresponding values for the post-vaccination plasma population (n = 21) ranged from 4.9 µg/ml to 1.5 mg/ml


The researchers then estimated the affinities for the antibodies produced.

Quote:

SP binding affinities (KD) of convalescent plasma samples ranged from 0.1 to 2.2 nM (mean = 0.87 ± 0.47 nM), while the range of RBD binding affinities was much narrower, all being subnanomolar (mean = 0.49 ± 0.15 nM). Spike protein binding affinities of post-vaccination plasma IgG antibodies were lower (p = 0.0001) and somewhat broader (0.2-3.9; 1.95 ± 0.99 nM than those of the convalescent antibody populations. However, the post-vaccination
anti-RBD affinities were virtually the same (0.48 ± 0.34 nM; p = 0.877), as were the EC50 values, the molar antibody concentration required to produce 50 percent inhibition of a set concentration
of ACE-2 binding to the RBD, a putative measure of neutralizing capacity (Figure 1D).


Natural infection produces antibodies for all surfaces of the virus while the mRNA vaccines produce antibodies for just the spike. The most important finding was the RBD antibody affinities from infection and vaccination were low, similar to one another, and higher than the affinity for the RBD to ACE2 (the antibodies out compete ACE2 binding to the RBD).

By combining the antibody titers, affinities, and estimates from other studies on how much antibody provides protection against infection; the authors estimated...

Quote:

With a binding affinity (KD) of 1.0 nM, 95 percent of SP molecules will be bound by antibody (by natural immunity). With the average binding affinity of 0.48 nM found for anti-RBD IgG in fully vaccinated individuals (Table 1), 99% of SP molecules would be bound by antibody.

These estimates suggest that vaccination produces RBD antibodies with slightly higher affinity (lower nM) and previous infection and these 21 patients with natural immunity and the 21 vaccinees had similar protection at the time the serum/plasma samples were taken.

What this study discusses is the ongoing effort to establish a WHO standard for all antibody tests that would then provide an estimate of the level of protection. Without this standard the results of antibody tests will not be useful in determining if a patient continues to have sufficient protection produced from natural immunity or vaccination.

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 11/25/21 10:36pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

New variant with 5 times more mutations in the RBD than Delta
Heavily mutated coronavirus variant puts scientists on alert

Deb and Ed M

SW MI & Space Coast, FL USA

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Posted: 11/26/21 06:52am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Judging by the reaction on Wall Street this morning, investors are freaking out about this one, too? I've never heard the talking heads on CNBC mention a "new variant" so many times - clearly they are anticipating global supply-chain disruptions. The Delta variant was barely a blip on Wall Street's radar.

I'm hoping they are over-reacting.

silversand

Montreal

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Posted: 11/27/21 09:35am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

....anyone want to speculate on a time-line for the (for a) Moderna EUA, as Moderna "rapidly advances" an multi-valent omicron-specific booster?

Company announcing a new variant-specific vaccine candidate against Omicron (mRNA-1273.529) here-->

Does it make sense to pursue the 3rd booster of the present vaccine say, if the 6 month eligibility period after 2nd booster falls in January or February (see below)?

Pure speculation on my part: ie. IF omicron outcompetes Delta world-wide by end of December/January, becoming overwhelmingly dominant, why continue boosting efforts for a probable extinct variant, in the near term, given all the spike mutations on omicron

I hope that present research into the continued viability of present mRNA vaccines against omicron shows some continued efficacy.....fingers crossed!

* This post was edited 11/27/21 09:47am by silversand *


Silver
2004 Chevy Silverado 2500HD 4x4 6.0L Ext/LB Tow Package 4L80E Michelin AT2s| Outfitter Caribou

BCSnob

Middletown, MD

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Posted: 11/27/21 10:18am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

My guess >12 months

Moderna has mRNA-1273.351 (beta variant) in phase 3 clinical trials now. The beta variant was sequenced in Oct 2020.

Safety and immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variant mRNA vaccine boosters in healthy adults: an interim analysis
Nature 15Sept2021

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