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 > It's past time

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nickthehunter

Southgate, MI

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Posted: 03/10/22 10:46am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

JRscooby wrote:

...I want to hold profit at record high, until the end of war. If that breaks a oil company, they're dead now...
We could increase supply and lower prices by just going back to the policies that existed prior to January 2221. No need to even try the smoke and mirrors; which are probably unconstitutional.

blt2ski

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Posted: 03/10/22 10:53am Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Scooby
I've seen 2-2.5% of NW fuel is from Russia. Other parts may be higher mind you.

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BCSnob

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Posted: 03/10/22 12:00pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

What decrease in US oil production since Jan 2021? All I find is a big decrease in production around Feb 2020.

US Crude Oil Production Apr 1983-Feb 2022

But why let the facts get in the way of a good story

nickthehunter

Southgate, MI

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Posted: 03/10/22 04:22pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BCSnob wrote:

What decrease in US oil production since Jan 2021? All I find is a big decrease in production around Feb 2020.

US Crude Oil Production Apr 1983-Feb 2022

But why let the facts get in the way of a good story
Yup, looks like you’re correct, back to reading comprehension 101 for me!
As an added note, looks like the decline tracks with the onset of Covid, where I guess the demand probably would have also similarly declined. Hence the supply and demand would have still been in equilibrium, and cost of gas remained low. Not so today however.

JRscooby

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Posted: 03/10/22 04:31pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

nickthehunter wrote:

BCSnob wrote:

What decrease in US oil production since Jan 2021? All I find is a big decrease in production around Feb 2020.

US Crude Oil Production Apr 1983-Feb 2022

But why let the facts get in the way of a good story
Yup, looks like you’re correct, back to reading comprehension 101 for me!
As an added note, looks like the decline tracks with the onset of Covid, where I guess the demand probably would have also similarly declined.


I'm I the only one to remember when the demand dropped so fast that a lot of speculators owned a bunch of oil, where paying others to take it because they did not want to store it in swimming pools? There was a time, likely too short to show up as a data point, where the price of crude dropped below $0.00

BCSnob

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Posted: 03/10/22 05:44pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Perhaps supply was trying (but failing) to keep up with the dropping demand (hence the negative price of oil futures) and now the increasing demand is faster than the increasing supply which is why prices are high.

Economics 101

* This post was edited 03/10/22 06:36pm by BCSnob *

nickthehunter

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Posted: 03/10/22 06:43pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

BCSnob wrote:

Perhaps supply was trying (but failing) to keep up with the dropping demand (hence the negative price of oil futures) and now the increasing demand is faster than the increasing supply which is why prices are high.

Economics 101
Perhaps - or perhaps it’s Brandon’s promises to eliminate fossil fuels.

BCSnob

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Posted: 03/10/22 06:55pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Yep, talk of cutting fossil fuel production (while actual production is increasing) is causing panic buying of fuel which is leading to price increases. Go check it out (from data sources not from a political talking head of either side, I suggest EIA), fuel prices were rising before this administration (because of increasing demand after the lock downs).

nickthehunter

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Posted: 03/10/22 08:30pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Yup - got it, Brandon’s got nothing to do with the ever increasing cost of oil. Except that doesn’t square with his promises and his speeches even today.
We’ll see how well that “not my fault” song plays come November.

valhalla360

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Posted: 03/10/22 08:33pm Link  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

JRscooby wrote:

Have you ever read a history book? The last time there was a major war in Europe gas, and many other things where rationed.
Your Venezuelan baker boat don't compare. The price of bread limited at a price too low for profit. I want to hold profit at record high, until the end of war. If that breaks a oil company, they're dead now.
My limited info is imports from Russia amounts to less than 10% of supply. I have know doubt that those of us that just pull in fill up, witch about the total, could reduce our use by at least that much. That would reduce demand/price increase for the people that always just put enough in tank to get back and forth to work. But the last 2+ years have proven a large percentage of population will not change behavior to save others lives.


Yes, a bit of a history buff. As horrible as the current situation is, it's no where close to WWII. It may go there eventually but there is absolutely no comparison with the current situation. During WWII price was not a primary concern in regards to rationing and we are no where close to rationing being a reasonable solution.

The problem with the govt setting profits is who decides what is a reasonable profit (or even a generous profit whatever that is supposed to be)...just because you think it's record profits doesn't mean it really is when looking at the big picture (R&D, Exploration, Risk, etc...). I wouldn't trust the politicians to decide as they are likely to use it as a tool to buy votes rather than determine a reasonable price.

If you don't like the Venezuelan comparison, it's similar to the politicians screaming about gouging after a hurricane.
- If the govt mandates prices stay constant, the first people to the store buy more water than they really need, leaving none for the rest. Since there isn't much profit, there's no incentive for companies to get more water into the area quickly.
- On the other hand, if private business is able to sell at say $20/case, people will limit purchases to what they really need, allowing others access to the current supply. Also, it may be extremely profitable for a grocery chain to load up trucks with bottled water and get it in as soon as the road is clear.

Problem with your theory that Russia being only 10% is it's the last barrel sold that sets the price. Take 10% off the market can have an outsized impact on the price.

So no, govt price controls have never been a great solution.


Tammy & Mike
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