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Pbutler97

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Posted: 11/12/22 07:01am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

ELKHART COUNTY, Ind. - As the recreational vehicle industry approaches the end of 2022, the nation’s economic malaise and spiking interest rates have caused buyers to tap the brakes on purchasing an RV. The latest data from the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association shows year-to-date shipments are down 8.2% compared to the first nine months of 2021. The month of September was especially challenging, as overall wholesale shipments to dealers were down 48.5% compared to September 2021.

But in an interview with Inside INdiana Business, RVIA spokesperson Monika Geraci called the decline a “normalization” of the industry following record shipments last year.

“Last year was a record setting year, over 600,000 RVs were built in 2021. That was a nearly 20% increase over any previous year,” said Geraci. “Our latest forecast shows that we’re going to be just shy of 500,000, which will be the third best year on record, right there close to 2017.”

Before last year’s mammoth year, 2017 was the previous high of 506,000 units shipped. Geraci adds, “We’re looking to be really right back there.”

Breaking it down, towable RVs ended September down 54% against September 2021, but motorhomes finished the month up 21% compared to the same month last year. Motorhomes account for 10% of all sales.

“This is a double-digit drop, but we were having double digit increases last year,” said Geraci. “Now it’s coming back down to where that 40-year, long-term growth line is.”

Despite a drop in shipments, RV makers are still posting big gains.

Elkhart-based LCI Industries (NYSE: LCII) last week reported third quarter net income of $61.4 million compared to $63.4 million during the same period a year ago. LCI Industries President and Chief Executive Officer Jason Lippert says the company delivered a “strong performance” despite a downturn in recreational vehicle demand.

“During the third quarter, we delivered growth in adjacent markets and leveraged our flexible cost structure to support profitability, as the RV industry adjusts to softened consumer demand and macroeconomic uncertainty,” said Lippert.

The company is also reporting Q3 net sales of $1.1 billion, down from $1.2 billion during the same period a year ago.

LCI says the decrease in year-over-year net sales for Q3 of 2022 was primarily driven by decreased North American RV wholesale shipments, reflecting a slowdown in consumer demand.

In September, Elkhart-based THOR Industries (NYSE: THO) reported a full-year net income of $1 billion, a record for the company. THOR President and CEO Bob Martin acknowledged a “softening in the towable RV sector” during the fourth quarter, but still record Q4 net income of $281 million, compared to $230 million during the same a year ago.

RVIA data shows during the first five months of this year, monthly shipments surpassed last year’s record-breaking year. But at the mid-point of 2022, as inflation and interest rates surged higher, demand lessened, and so too shipments from manufacturers to dealers.

“The macroeconomic issues are not great, particularly inflation,” said Geraci. “But what we know is that RV travel is a more economical way to travel.”

Looking to the year ahead, the RVIA is expecting a further drop in wholesale shipments. A quarterly industry forecast, conducted by ITR Economics, puts the estimate at 419,000 units in 2023.

If realized, that would be a 16% decline from the projected 2022 total.

“We’re expecting to see these monthly shipments be a little bit lower, like we’ve seen on the back half of this year. And then we expect it to pick back up,” Geraci said.

The RVIA says Indiana factories account for 86% of U.S. RV units. Second place belongs to Oregon with just 3% of RV production.

LINK



Results for the RV Industry Association’s September 2022 survey of manufacturers determined that total RV shipments ended the month with 28,333 units, a decrease of (-48.5%) compared to the 55,014 units shipped in September 2021. Through September, RV shipments are down (-8.2%) compared to the same point last year with 415,594 wholesale shipments.

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midnightsadie

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Posted: 11/12/22 07:22am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I wonder what fuel pricing will do to there numbers.I,m in canton ohio diesel $6.39 gas $4.89

IB853347201

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Posted: 11/12/22 07:31am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

midnightsadie wrote:

I wonder what fuel pricing will do to there numbers.I,m in canton ohio diesel $6.39 gas $4.89

I don't know where you are buying gas but the current price at the Pilot on I77 at Faircrest Street in Canton is $5.69 for diesel and $3.79 for gas. In case you are looking for a cheaper alternative.


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Trainer

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Posted: 11/12/22 07:49am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Diesel today in North Canton is $5.314 at the TA purchasing with the TDS issued EFS fuel card. The card is a driver's fuel card issued by TSD Logistics in Texarkanna, TX, a trucking company. They offered the card to RVers for over 3 years now saving lots of money on diesel. 6.39 to 5.32 is over a dollar savings per gallon.

if you need help getting one, send me an email at jrlegett at gmail.com


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MitchF150

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Posted: 11/12/22 08:40am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

I've noticed the RV lots filling up with inventory.. Also seeing more trucks and suv's on the car lots now too.. So seems that the trend has shifted for sure.

It costs me on average around $300 in gas just for a local camping trip that's about 4 hours away. About $100 more than it used to cost even just last year.

I've used the F150 as a daily driver all the way up to around June of this year.. Picked up a 2014 Ford Escape for the daily grind now and the F150 is in the garage now..

Just paid off the mortgage this month and the trailer will get paid off soon too.. All other vehicles are paid for, so no new ones planned for some time, that's for sure!! I've have whatever breaks FIXED even if it's a whole new engine/tranny deal...

Mitch


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BB_TX

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Posted: 11/12/22 08:46am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Took a long trip last week passing numerous RV dealers. All of them were packed to the rims with new RVs. Looks like new arrivals are way up and sales are way down. Normally would be a good time to buy. But with the high price of new units, the price of fuel (especially diesel), and higher interest rates, the buyers are likely to stay on the sidelines for a while.

monkey44

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Posted: 11/12/22 09:41am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

One thing I notice in the article cited ... it talks about built and shipped, but not much about actual sales to consumers. Just because a manufacturer builds one and ships one does not mean a dealer sold one. Sold is the criteria, not when it sits on a dealer lot, waiting for a customer.

We are beginning to see a long-term recovery in both RV and truck sales, but that will also depend on interest rate dropping for those that finance and not cash-buyers. I'd expect the market depends more on financed buyers than cash purchases to remain viable to dealers. Dealers get the bucks either way, but the market is probably much less dependent on cash sales, especially with interest up and sale prices high.


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midnightsadie

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Posted: 11/12/22 09:41am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

diesel is right, gas a buck wrong.I,m older than dirt yep made a mistake slap me for it.

wildtoad

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Posted: 11/12/22 09:50am Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

Camping World and other RV dealers are advertising to buy your RV, but not at reasonable prices. Seems they want to build inventory and/or they know there is a lot of people looking to sell. Towable units, except perhaps for Airstream, are most often purchased by people with lower incomes and more affected by the price of gas/diesel.


Tom Wilds
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bgum

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Posted: 11/12/22 06:33pm Link  |  Quote  |  Print  |  Notify Moderator

The party is over for a while. Normal fluctuations in the market. Fuel costs have reached their new normal.

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